Date: October 23, 2024
Event: Supported Webinar
This webinar is part of the webinar series 'Staying in Dialogue with China'. The series will bring you six webinars with distinguished China-based experts, concentrated between April and October 2024.
'Staying in Dialogue with China' is organized and hosted by China Macro Group (CMG), with Caixin Global as Anchor Partner, in cooperation with the China Europe International Business School (CEIBS), Chinaforum Bayern, Swissmem, the Swiss Chinese Chamber of Commerce (SCCC), the Danish-Chinese Business Forum (DCBF), SwissCham China, the Stein am Rhein Symposium (stars), and the Sweden-China Trade Council (SCTC).
In the fifth session of the webinar series "Staying in Dialogue with China", Markus Hermann, Co-Founder and Managing Director, China Macro Group (CMG) will be talking to Prof. Yu Miaojie, President & University Chair of Liaoning University, and Liberal-Art Chair Professor of Peking University about China's "Economic Globalization" as a fifth structural transition as per CMG's conceptual framework of China's political economy.
China in the 1980s embarked on a gradual and selective path of opening up its by then closed economy to the world - understanding that foreign investment and technologies were critical to the country's catch-up development. In the years that followed, most notably after China acceded the WTO in 2001, the Chinese economy rapidly integrated with the world across trade and investment and started its climb in global value chains. At the same time, foreign investment flocked to China to make use of a skilled and comparatively cheap workforce, and in later days increasingly of a highly competitive and dynamic manufacturing and innovation ecosystem. A classic win-win situation.
Around 2015 (publication of "Made in China 2025"), and especially 2016 with the election of US-president Trump, however, the US and increasingly also the EU and other countries started pushing back against China's export-oriented development model that had run large annual trade surpluses and become a significant economic player and competitor internationally in a number of industries. China, in turn, with the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) unveiled its 'dual circulation' strategy to respond to a more complex global environment - among others in an attempt to make its own economy less dependent on external inputs and strengthen its overall resilience.
To date, the global economic integration has brought great benefits to China, but amid an altered geoeconomic and geopolitical context, how will top-level policymaking evolve? What does Beijing mean with "high-level opening up"? What are policy and market trends for the continues "going out" of Chinese companies? What will Beijing do about the issue of "overcapacity" invoked by many Western governments, as well as its structurally large trade imbalance? In view of some new trade policy measured of the Third Plenum, will we see a stronger trade diversion targeting the Global South? What importance do policymakers still assign to FDI and is it in China's interest to provide a better level playing field domestically? How is China's financial integration with the world going to evolve? What role shall and can the RMB play in all this?
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